The magazine of the North Carolina Center for Voter Education • Saturday May 19, 2012

A Political Thanksgiving

By Bryan Warner
Published: Nov. 23, 2011

RALEIGH - With Thanksgiving 2011 upon us, here are a few reasons for political figures in North Carolina and nationally to give thanks.

President Barack Obama – As he kicks off his reelection campaign, President Obama faces the daunting historical fact that no incumbent has won a second term in the White House with unemployment above 7.2 percent since Franklin Roosevelt in 1936. The jobless rate hovers at about 9 percent with less than a year before Election Day.

However, most national polls find Obama leading or even with his would-be Republican challengers. Obama can be most thankful that he has 11 months to see the unemployment rate drop while he watches a GOP field of contenders do his work for him by dinging up whichever nominee emerges from the Republican Party.

Plus, he can give thanks that he looks likely to escape any serious primary challenge. That’s good news for Obama, since relatively recent political history shows that incumbents facing substantive primary opposition fare poorly in the general election. Gerald Ford lost in 1976 after a primary fight with Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter fell in 1980 after tangling in the primary against Ted Kennedy and George H.W. Bush was defeated in 1992 after surviving a challenge from fellow-Republican Pat Buchanan. Obama is surely grateful for a clear path to re-nomination.

Mitt Romney – While he has failed to see his poll numbers catch fire, Romney has avoided any plummet in his standing and thus far escaped having a major gaffe. With a sizable campaign war chest and a growing number of key endorsements, Romney can be thankful that several of his opponents – such as Texas Gov. Rick Perry – are struggling and Newt Gingrich is, at the moment, his chief rival headed into the start of primary voting. Plus, his recent confession of having tried a cigarette and beer – once – may help humanize his squeaky-clean image.

Newt Gingrich – His campaign looked left for dead this summer, with staffers abandoning ship and Gingrich alienating the conservative base through his opposition to the Paul Ryan Medicare reform plan. However, Gingrich may have swung around on the GOP’s anti-Romney carousel just in time to head into the Iowa caucuses as the frontrunner of an ever-changing pack. He can also give thanks that the holiday season has arrived to distract the nation – and Republican voters – from the bright lights of scrutiny that have proven the downfall of the previous un-Romney contenders.

Herman Cain – It has been a tough few weeks for the former frontrunner. The good news for Cain may be that while allegations of sexual harassment and an embarrassing foreign policy gaffe have taken a toll on his poll numbers, he still appears to be a top-tier, or near top-tier, contender with Gingrich and Romney – for now. If Cain survives one of the most brutal months for a presidential candidate in recent memory, he indeed should be thankful.

Rick Perry – The Texas governor entered the crowded Republican presidential field this summer seen as a savior of sorts for the anti-Romney wing of the GOP. But his several gaffes, such as calling Republican opponents of in-state tuition for illegal immigrants “heartless” and not recalling which major federal agency he would cut, have relegated Perry to single digits in the polls with less than six weeks before the Iowa caucuses. Perry can be thankful, however, that it still gives current frontrunner Gingrich more than a month of opportunities to come tumbling down.

Perry can also be grateful that he still has a formidable campaign checking account – and a job waiting for him back in the Lone Star State if Iowa and South Carolina don’t pan out.

Jon Huntsman – It may be tough to see a path to the nomination for the former Utah governor at this point, especially if he doesn’t finish strongly in New Hampshire. But Huntsman can be grateful for great hair, daughters who have a good sense of humor and the chance to position himself for 2016. He can also be thankful that for a candidate who consistently polls near 1-3 percent, he somehow manages to win a healthy amount of media coverage and is invited to each nationally televised debate. (Somewhere, former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer is shaking his fist.)

Bev Perdue – North Carolina’s Democratic governor can be thankful that a year of Republican rule in the state legislature has shored up support for her among her party’s base and given her a reliable foil going into her reelection bid in 2012. She can also be grateful that the Obama campaign will spend millions of dollars to build a top-flight apparatus of volunteers, paid staff and oodles of advertising in the Tar Heel State, potentially lifting Perdue’s campaign along the way.

Pat McCrory – The 2008 Republican nominee for North Carolina governor can be thankful that he still leads Perdue in a hypothetical rematch for the Executive Mansion, although that lead has narrowed since the start of the year. He can also be grateful that he may avoid any big-name primary challenger in May, allowing him to save his campaign cash for what could be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the nation.

North Carolina Republicans – The state GOP entered 2011 holding the reins of power in both chambers of the N.C. legislature for the first time in more than 100 years. And while Republicans showed themselves a bit rusty after a century without the gavel, the party did come to power at just the right time to redraw congressional and legislative voting maps that most observers say strongly favor the GOP. If those maps withstand scrutiny by the courts – a big “if” given North Carolina’s redistricting history – Republicans could likely pick up two congressional seats and solidify their control of the General Assembly.

North Carolina Democrats – Though they found themselves in the minority for the first time in several generations, legislative Democrats proved themselves fairly effective as the opposition. While five House Democrats did break ranks to support the Republican-crafted state budget – a significant splinter – the minority party held united on other key issues, such as upholding Gov. Perdue’s veto of a voter photo ID requirement. And with the Democratic National Convention coming to Charlotte in 2012, North Carolina Democrats can hope that a post-convention bounce pushes the political pendulum back their way next year.

Political geeks – We odd ducks who can’t get enough political coverage must feel like we’ve had a healthy dose of tryptophan after the glut of Republican presidential debates in the last three months, featuring lively characters such as Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and Ron Paul. With the 2012 election just underway, it’s like a yearlong Super Bowl, Halloween and “American Idol” finale wrapped into one Lollapalooza for political obsessives.

Normal, well-adjusted voters – For all of the other folks, who, unlike we political nuts, feel overwhelmed by the constant noise of a campaign that started months before a single ballot has been cast, they can be thankful for unseasonably warm weather, a good book and a remote control.

Happy Thanksgiving!