The magazine of the North Carolina Center for Voter Education • Saturday May 19, 2012

10 Political Points to Watch in 2011

By Bryan Warner
Published: Jan. 5, 2011

RALEIGH - As the new year dawns with a persistent economic struggle, a tea-party-infused Congress, a new majority in the N.C. legislature and a nascent presidential race, here are 10 political questions for 2011.

Will Charlotte play host to the Democratic National Convention?

This month, the Democratic Party is expected to reveal the choice for its 2012 national convention.  The scuttlebutt says the pick has come down to either Charlotte or St. Louis.  If Charlotte is indeed the Democrats’ choice, it might signal that President Barack Obama plans to go on the offensive in his reelection bid, hoping to win North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes next year as he did -- by just 14,000 ballots -- in 2008.

Such a strategy might be wise for Obama.  Based on U.S. Census Bureau data released last month, the nation’s population continues to shift from the Democratic strongholds of the Northeast to the Republican-leaning regions of the South and Southwest.  In fact, the 2010 census will result in states won by Obama in 2008 suffering a net loss of six electoral votes, while states won by Republican Sen. John McCain will enjoy a net gain of six electoral votes.

Will congressional tea-party Republicans “play chicken” with the nation’s debt ceiling?

Forecasts show the U.S. hitting its current debt ceiling of $14.3 trillion this spring.  If the ceiling is not raised, the nation will default on its financial obligations. 

Some newly elected, tea party-backed members of Congress might look upon capping the debt ceiling as a long-overdue stroke of fiscal discipline.  But conservative commentator George Will said on ABC News’ “This Week” that refusing to raise the debt ceiling would be “suicidal.”

Incoming Republican Speaker John Boehner told the New Yorker last month that the debate over the debt ceiling “is going to be probably the first really big adult moment” for the new Republican majority in the U.S. House.  He added, “For people who’ve never been in politics it’s going to be one of those growing moments.”

Boehner’s ability to broker a deal on the debt ceiling could provide a window into how tea party members and the Republican establishment will coexist on Capitol Hill for the next two years.

Will Republican unity in the N.C. legislature show signs of strain?

On Jan. 26, Republicans will officially take the reins in both chambers of the N.C. General Assembly for the first time since 1898. 

In 2006, North Carolina Republicans waged a sort of internal civil war, with allies of former House Co-speaker Richard Morgan, who shared the gavel with Democratic Speaker Jim Black, pitted against wealthy Republican supporter Art Pope’s acolytes.  Pope won out, which may have led to greater solidarity within the party and perhaps contributed to the Republican success of 2010.

Now in power, Republicans face excruciatingly tough decisions with a looming $3.7 billion budget shortfall. Also, the politically delicate legislative redistricting process could step on toes belonging to donkeys and elephants alike, carving districts that leave some fellow Republicans vulnerable to defeat in 2012. And some freshman members of the Republican caucus might not have the patience to defer to their more seasoned GOP colleagues, creating internal power struggles.

The strain of governing in the crucible of 2011 could reveal Republican stress fractures that leave the party weakened in 2012, or the shared trials of this year could mature and strengthen the GOP for elections to come.

How will Gov. Bev Perdue deal with the GOP-controlled N.C. General Assembly?

In 2009, Bev Perdue made history when she delivered her “State of the State” address to a joint session of the legislature as North Carolina’s first female governor.

In 2011, Perdue will make history again, this time delivering her speech as the first Democratic governor in more than a century to serve with a Republican-controlled N.C. General Assembly.

How Perdue wields her veto power will be insightful. While Republicans hold a veto-proof majority in the N.C. Senate, the N.C. House GOP will need to pull four Democrats to their side for any veto override.

North Carolina gave its governor veto power just 14 years ago -- as the last state to do so -- and it has been used sparingly since.  If Perdue unsheathes the veto pen with great frequency, it could be a sign that she hopes to fight off any left-flank attack in the 2012 Democratic primary.  If, however, Perdue seldom resorts to a veto, it could indicate that the governor is hoping to build a centrist brand for the general election next year.

Will North Carolina’s temporary sales tax increase be allowed to expire?

Gov. Perdue has already agreed with incoming Republican legislative leaders on at least one issue: allowing the temporary 1-cent sales tax increase passed two years ago to expire this June.  What remains to be seen is if both the governor and the legislature will hold to that line once the heavy lifting of balancing the budget is before them.

Certainly, neither Republicans nor Perdue have the appetite for raising taxes during a severe economic downturn with nearly 10 percent unemployment.  Left uncertain is how North Carolina’s government -- which is constitutionally barred from running a deficit and has already cut spending by $3 billion over the past two years -- will bridge the mammoth $3.7 billion shortfall by cutting government services alone.

Will N.C. Republicans make meaningful redistricting reform?

During their years in the political wilderness, North Carolina Republicans called for an independent commission to take much of the partisan calculus out of redrawing legislative and congressional voting maps in the wake of each 10-year census.

Now that they are in power, it will be telling if Republicans prove themselves sincere supporters of redistricting reform.  Already, incoming Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis has responded to Gov. Perdue’s newfound fondness for an independent commission by saying there isn’t time enough to launch such a body for this year’s redistricting process. 

That Republican reluctance may be founded in recognizing reality or relishing in the spoils of victory. But it will be illuminating to see if Republicans are true to their word and move forward on enshrining an independent redistricting commission in the state’s constitution by passing an amendment to come before voters in 2012. 

How will Republicans try to amend North Carolina’s Constitution?

When the gavel drops on a Republican-dominated session this year, the GOP will have the opportunity to fulfill several longstanding pledges to their conservative base.

Among the promises they may try to fulfill is passage of a constitutional amendment restricting eminent-domain seizure of private property by governments in North Carolina. An amendment banning gay marriage is also likely to be pushed by many Republicans.

Having the two amendments appear on the 2012 general election ballot would not only please conservative voters, but also turn them out to the polls in droves -- boosting GOP electoral prospects and making the state all the more challenging for President Obama to win.

Will any GOP rivals slow Pat McCrory’s path to the Republican gubernatorial nomination?

In 2008, then seven-term Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory emerged from a field of five contenders as the Republican nominee for North Carolina governor.  McCrory went on to lose to then Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue by 145,000 votes out of almost 4.3 million ballots cast.  McCrory attributed his loss to the coattails of Barack Obama, who became the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win the state.

While McCrory declined to run for reelection as Charlotte mayor in 2009, he still seems to be the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican gubernatorial nod. A poll released by Public Policy Polling in November showed McCrory with a 49-37 percent advantage over Perdue in a hypothetical rematch.

What remains to be seen in 2011 is if his fellow Republicans, especially those still buzzing from the 2010 GOP wave, are content to step aside and hand McCrory the nomination, or if potential rivals will begin to build campaigns of their own in the upcoming months.

Which Republicans will homestead in Iowa?

The Iowa State Fair doesn’t start rolling until August, far too late for Republican presidential hopefuls to make their debut in a bid to win that state’s February 2012 caucuses. As such, anyone hoping to read presidential tea leaves should hunker down at the Des Moines International Airport between now and then to spot the arrival of would-be GOP contenders for the Oval Office.

Interestingly, to date no prominent Republican has declared his -- or her -- candidacy, while at about this point in the 2008 presidential cycle, several candidates, including then Senators Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain, had publicly thrown their hats into the ring.

Will Sen. Richard Burr’s brand rise in national prominence?

In 2010, incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr did what few previous occupants of his seat had done: win reelection.  In fact, no holder of that U.S. Senate seat had won a second term since Sam Ervin in 1962.

Yet, Burr is far from a household name outside of North Carolina.  His one moment in the spotlight might have been a random 2009 run in with a member of the Washington, D.C., paparazzi who taped Burr driving his 1974 Volkswagen Thing convertible through snow-covered streets near the Capitol.

Still, as a two-term senator with conservative credentials hailing from a populous and growing state, Burr could make an enticing vice presidential running mate for whoever emerges with the 2012 Republican nomination.

It will be telling if Burr increases his appearances on the Sunday morning talk show circuit.  If he proves himself capable on the national stage, Burr could become the second North Carolina senator in eight years to run for the vice presidency.