Weekly ad roundup

Posted on February 17, 2012 by Brent Laurenz

The Republican primary race has shifted yet again, and the campaign ads certainly reflect the new reality.  Newt Gingrich has been relatively quiet while Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum train their fire on each other as Santorum rides a wave of momentum following his three victories in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado last week.

Both are going to compete heavily in Michigan, which votes on February 28, and will work on the airwaves to define themselves to Michigan Republicans.  In a new ad from the Romney campaign he trumpets his Michigan roots to appeal to voters in the state.

Santorum also has his own ad trumpeting his experience and conservative credentials, and claiming to have the best chance of beating Preisdent Obama in the general election.

Of course, it wouldn’t be an air war without the ubiquitous Super PACs getting involved.  Here’s one from the pro-Romney “Restore Our Future” that takes aim at Santorum’s record in Washington, DC.

And finally, Santorum is up with a creative ad taking Romney and his side to task for all the negative advertising.  It’s a clever spot that seemed to garner a lot of free press for the Santorum campaign.

If history is any guide we can expect Romney and his aligned Super PACs to go after Santorum pretty hard in Michigan, which is becoming close to a must win state for Romney.  If Santorum were to pull out a win there on the 28th, the entire dynamic of the race could shift.

Posted in Campaign ads, Election 2012 | Leave a comment

Election 2012 officially begins

Posted on February 13, 2012 by Brent Laurenz

Today is the official beginning of the 2012 election as candidate filing gets underway across North Carolina.  Candidates have until February 29 to file if they wish to be on the ballot this year, and, as Jim Morrill notes in the Charlotte Observer, it’s going to be a pretty wild year for elections here in the state.

We already have an open race for governor, three open congressional seats and more than 30 openings in the General Assembly.  Many of these openings are a result of last year’s redistricting, which forced a lot of lawmakers into less-friendly districts or districts with another lawmaker.  And for Democrats, a lot of it could be the result of two years in the minority after a long time in the majority, and the likelihood that they would remain in the minority next year.

The open governor’s race garnered much of the attention, and speculation, in the weeks leading up to candidate filing after Gov. Perdue became the first North Carolina governor in the modern era to not seek re-election.  Three Democrats have announced so far in the race to replace Perdue: Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton, former Congressman Bob Etheridge and N.C. Rep. Bill Faison.  With candidate filing now open we are still awaiting a final decision from Congressman Brad Miller, state Sen. Dan Blue and former Treasurer Richard Moore on whether or not they will throw their hat in the ring.  Pat McCrory is all but certain to be the Republican nominee and the race could be one of the most competitive gubernatorial contests in the country.

Of course, with Lt. Gov. Dalton running for governor his current post now becomes an open seat as well.  Republicans were already poised for a competitive primary, with Wake County Commissioner Tony Gurley, N.C. Rep. Dale Folwell and Raleigh architect Dan Forest in the lieutenant governor’s race.  Now the Democrats will have a primary too as N.C. Sen. Eric Mansfield announced he was running today.  Mansfield is serving his first term in the state Senate from Fayetteville and will at least be challenging former N.C. Rep. Linda Coleman if no other candidates file in the next two weeks.

Political junkies are sure to be glued to their laptops and phones over the next two weeks tracking which candidates file for which office, who will retire and who will be seeking re-election.  No matter what happens in 2012, though, there’s sure to be a lot of new faces in Raleigh in 2013.

Keep up with the latest filing news with the North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation’s 2012 Election Tracker.

Posted in Election 2012, North Carolina | Leave a comment

Romney wins votes in Maine, CPAC

Posted on February 11, 2012 by BWarner

Mitt Romney

Photo: Gage Skidmore

After stumbling last week in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, Mitt Romney got a boost Saturday from a caucus victory in Maine and a straw poll win at an influential conservative conference.

With 84 percent of precincts reporting, Romney was declared the winner in Maine’s nonbinding caucuses, leading Ron Paul 39-36 percent. Rick Santorum, who pulled off a three-state sweep last week, finished a distant third at 18 percent. Newt Gingrich was last at 6 percent.

“I thank the voters of Maine for their support,” Romney said in a statement Saturday. “I’m committed to turning around America. And I’m heartened to have the support of so many good people in this great state.”

Meanwhile, Romney led the field of Republican contenders in a straw poll at the 2012 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, D.C., with 38 percent of the vote. Santorum placed second at 31 percent, followed by Gingrich at 15 percent and Paul at 12 percent.

Both victories are largely symbolic for Romney. Fewer than 6,000 votes were cast in Maine, without any delegate allocation directly linked to the outcome. About 3,400 CPAC attendees took part in that conference’s straw poll.

But the results come at a time when the Romney campaign is looking for any traction in the race as Santorum is on the rise and key primaries await at the end of the month in Arizona and Michigan. A poll released Saturday by Public Policy Polling  finds Santorum leading Romney nationally, 38-23 percent.

That survey also shows Santorum as the favorite of 51 percent of tea party voters, and Romney a distant third at 12 percent, following Gingrich at 24 percent. Thus, Romney’s straw poll win at CPAC could be vital to him shoring up conservative support going into the crucial Mar. 6 Super Tuesday when 10 states hold their caucuses or primaries.

 

 

Posted in Election 2012, Maine, Polls | Leave a comment

Poll: Etheridge leads Democratic gov hopefuls

Posted on February 8, 2012 by BWarner
Bob Etheridge

Former congressman Bob Etheridge leads a field of Democratic gubernatorial candidates in a survey released Wednesday by Public Policy Polling.

The poll finds that of the three contenders who have officially announced their candidacy, Etheridge is favored by 30 percent of Democratic-leaning voters, followed by Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton at 34 percent. State Rep. Bill Faison of Orange County comes in last at 6 percent.

When factoring in potential candidates who are mulling over possible runs, Etheridge still leads the pack at 24 percent, with state Sen. Dan Blue second at 13 percent. Dalton drops to third at 10 percent. Congressman Brad Miller, former state treasurer Richard Moore, Congressman Mike McIntyre and Rep. Faison all follow in the single digits.

Etheridge, who was the state superintendent of public instruction before serving seven terms in Congress, leads the field in name recognition at 50 percent, followed by Miller and Dalton at 41 percent.

While Etheridge tops the Democratic field for governor, roughly 40 percent of voters are undecided, essentially leaving the nomination fight wide open with just 13 weeks to go before the state’s May 8 primary.

“Etheridge is the early favorite to the extent there is one, but a lot can change in the next three months,” said pollster Tom Jensen.

Posted in Election 2012, governor, North Carolina | Leave a comment

Santorum sweeps in MO, MN, CO

Posted on February 8, 2012 by BWarner

Rock Santorum

photo: George Skidmore

Former U.S. senator Rick Santorum had the biggest night of his presidential candidacy thus far on Tuesday as he pulled off a trifecta in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado.

In Missouri, which held a non-binding primary with no delegates at stake, Santorum placed a strong first with 55 percent of the vote, followed by Mitt Romney at 25 percent and Ron Paul at 12 percent. Newt Gingrich failed to qualify for the ballot in the Show-Me State.

Santorum was also victorious in the Minnesota caucuses, taking 45 percent of the vote. Paul was a distant second at 27 percent and Romney third at 17 percent. Gingrich was last at 10 percent.

Colorado may have been the biggest surprise of the night, since Romney looked primed for a repeat of his win there in 2008. However, Santorum completed his three-state sweep with a first place finish in that state’s caucuses, beating Romney 40-35 percent. Gingrich was third at 13 percent, with Paul coming in last at 12 percent.

“Conservatism is alive and well in Missouri — and Minnesota,” Santorum told a crowd of supporters Tuesday night, while his victory in Colorado was still unsure.

Santorum’s success comes after Romney built momentum with dominating wins in Florida and Nevada. Although Tuesday’s votes may have little impact on the delegate count for each Republican candidate, the media splash instantly gives Santorum an opening to position himself as the conservative alternative to Romney, potentially snatching that mantle from Gingrich.

For Romney, yesterday’s results slow down his pace as frontrunner and once again raise questions about a lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy among the GOP base.

“This was a good night for Rick Santorum. I want to congratulate Senator Santorum, wish him the very best, we’ll keep on campaigning down the road,” Romney told a group of supporters in Colorado Tuesday night. “But I expect to become our nominee with your help.”

It remains to be seen how Santorum will fare if Romney and Gingrich – along with their allied super PACs – train their fire on the suddenly resurgent former senator.

The key for Santorum will be converting his momentum from last night into a surge of fundraising and on-the-ground organizing as key primaries approach on Feb. 28 in Arizona and Ohio. His staying power and national reach could also be severely tested by the crucial Mar. 6 Super Tuesday, when 10 states hold their primaries or caucuses, a day that could prove decisive in the Republican nomination fight.

 

Posted in Election 2012, Missouri | Leave a comment

Romney cruises to win in Nevada, Santorum shows signs of life

Posted on February 5, 2012 by BWarner

Mitt Romney

Photo: Gage Skidmore

Just days after a decisive win in the Florida primary, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney swept to victory in the Nevada caucuses Saturday, strengthening his position as the frontrunner in the race for the GOP presidential nomination. Meanwhile, polls in upcoming state primaries show former U.S. senator Rick Santorum potentially primed for a big week.

With 84 percent of precincts reporting, Romney led a field of four contenders, with 49 percent of the vote in Nevada. Former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich followed at a distant second with 22 percent. Congressman Ron Paul was third with 19 percent of the vote and  Santorum last at 10 percent.

Romney, who won Nevada in 2008 with 51 percent of the vote, repeated his domination of the state’s caucuses. Boosting his efforts was the relatively large turnout of Mormon voters, who made up almost 25 percent of Republican caucus-goers in the Silver State.

The Nevada caucuses had little of the fiery debate or intense focus seen in earlier states like Florida, but Romney’s second consecutive decisive win reinforces the narrative of him rising once again to the front of the pack after a double-digit loss to Gingrich in South Carolina two weeks ago.

The results in Florida and Nevada place former frontrunner Gingrich in a difficult position as the nomination fight now moves away from singular contests to a nationwide campaign, with three states voting on Tuesday: Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. While Gingrich failed to qualify for Missouri’s non-binding primary, he trails in the polls in Colorado and Minnesota.

New numbers from Public Policy Polling show Romney favored by 40 percent of Colorado Republicans, with Santorum edging Gingrich in that state, 26-18 percent. Gingrich also trails both men in Minnesota, where Santorum holds a slim lead over Romney, 29-27 percent.

Those numbers, coupled with a survey last week showing Santorum with a lead over Romney in Missouri, indicate that Santorum could have a big Tuesday. If we wins or places a strong second in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, suddenly Santorum could emerge as the leading alternative to Romney, further eroding Gingrich’s chances of rebounding.

“Tuesday has the potential to be a huge day for both Romney and Santorum,” said Tom Jensen from Public Policy Polling. “A sweep for Romney would do much to enhance the feeling that he’s unstoppable. Wins for Santorum in Minnesota and Missouri would make it clear he’s a more viable alternative to Romney than Gingrich and give him a lot of momentum for the road ahead.”

Jensen added, “It looks like it will be another dark day for Gingrich, whose campaign it appears peaked two weeks ago in South Carolina.”

Posted in Election 2012, Nevada | Leave a comment

A tough start to 2012 for N.C. Dems

Posted on February 4, 2012 by BWarner

The first five weeks of 2012 may have been the most trying time for North Carolina Democrats since the party suffered historic defeats in the 2010 state legislative elections.

Last week Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue sent shock waves through Tar Heel politics with the announcement that she will not seek re-election this fall. The news caught most political observers off guard.

While Perdue struggled in the polls through much of 2011, she had shown an ability to keep pace on the fundraising front with her likely Republican rival, former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory. And Perdue seemed to have found an effective foil in the Republican-controlled legislature, which, thanks to funding cuts for education, saw its popularity fall among  North Carolina voters.

Surely, Perdue’s path to a second term was to be difficult, perhaps even Herculean, but not impossible – especially given the focus that the Obama campaign will give to North Carolina in terms of organization and money. A rising tide for Obama in the Tar Heel State would seem to lift all Democratic boats.

Perdue’s stated reason for opting against a run at a second term was that she wished to depoliticize the debate over education funding. She may be quite sincere in that rationale, but it seems unlikely that Perdue’s lame-duck status when lawmakers return to work will change much in the adversarial relationship between the legislature and governor’s office.

The retirement of Perdue could end up helping her party’s chances of holding the governor’s office, given her polling difficulties as North Carolina continues to suffer higher unemployment rates than many other states. But Perdue’s abrupt timing has caused Democrats to scramble for a standard-bearer just 15 weeks before the May 8 primary.

This week, Democrats focused their hopes on convincing former White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles to pick up the party’s banner and make a run for the Executive Mansion. The prospect of Bowles as the nominee was attractive to Democrats on several fronts.

Bowles lost twice in runs for the U.S. Senate, first against Elizabeth Dole in 2002 and against Richard Burr in 2004. But since then, he has won praise for his service as president of the UNC system and then as a member of a bipartisan commission appointed by President Obama and tasked with finding ways to reduce the national debt.

If Bowles were to enter the contest, he would instantly close the gap with McCrory in terms of name recognition and money. Both men come from Charlotte, a hub for wealthy investment bankers, allowing Bowles to cut into McCrory’s fundraising base. And Bowles’ reputation as something of a deficit hawk would have made him appealing to more moderate voters.

Indeed, a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling found that among 13 potential Democratic gubernatorial contenders, McCory led Bowles by just 2 percent, while most other hypothetical candidates trailed McCrory by double digits.

However, Bowles announced Thursday that he would not enter the fray for governor, joining a cavalcade of Democratic luminaries that had also declined to run: U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, Attorney General Roy Cooper and current Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx.

That same day, Congressman Heath Shuler, who had also been weighing a bid for governor, announced that not only would he sit out of the governor’s race, he would retire from Congress at the end of this year.

The news was perhaps less stunning than Perdue’s announcement, given that new Republican-drawn voting maps have left Shuler’s 11th District much less hospitable to Democrats by removing a chunk of Asheville. However, Shuler is no typical Democrat, having made a quixotic play to take the mantle of House minority leader from Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi. A hometown hero from rural Swain County, Shuler seemed a formidable candidate for re-election, even in a district that had become tougher to win.

Adding to the party’s bad news, on Thursday former N.C. House speaker Joe Hackney, a 16-term Democrat from Chapel Hill, announced that he would not seek re-election. A sharp debater and masterful parliamentarian, Hackney’s departure could shake up the Democratic legislative caucus and make their efforts in the minority all the more difficult.

The week was not all negative for Democrats. New jobless numbers released Friday found the national unemployment rate dropping to 8.3 percent – the lowest in nearly three years – after five straight months of job growth. That is very good news for President Obama. And given how the new year has played out so far, the electoral fates of North Carolina Democrats could be even more closely intertwined with the president’s success in the Tar Heel State.

Ultimately, much can and will happen along the circuitous path to November. But for North Carolina Democrats, the first 34 days of 2012 have largely been a time to forget.

Posted in Election 2012, governor, N.C. legislature, North Carolina, U.S. Congress | Leave a comment

Weekly ad roundup

Posted on February 3, 2012 by Brent Laurenz

It’s been a pretty quiet week on the airwaves for the Republican presidential candidates after Mitt Romney’s big win in Florida on Tuesday.  And with Romney poised to win big in Nevada tomorrow, perhaps there’s not much of a need for a heavy advertising blitz in the state either.

Romney has been airing an ad in Nevada that is identical to one that had been up in Florida, attacking Gingrich for his record.

Santorum had one of the more interesting spots of the week, trying to attach Gingrich to President Obama and Nancy Pelosi.  Does this mean Santorum is more likely to endorse Romney if he drops out of the race?

Finally, after Romney’s victory in Florida it looks like he’s beginning to think a little more about the general election based on this new video:

 

Posted in Campaign ads, Election 2012 | Leave a comment

Romney wins big in Florida

Posted on January 31, 2012 by BWarner

Ten days after finishing a distant second to Newt Gingrich in South Carolina, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won a resounding victory in the Florida presidential primary on Tuesday night.

As the dust settled on what had been an often times bitter struggle for the Sunshine State, Romney emerged with 46 percent of the vote compared to the 32 percent for Gingrich. It was a dramatic reversal for both men after polling in Florida had shown Gingrich with a lead there following his South Carolina victory.

Faced with a stinging loss in Florida, Gingrich on Tuesday said that he would prove that “people power” will defeat “money power,” a reference to the sizable cash advantage for the Romney campaign. Gingrich reiterated a pledge to carry his candidacy to the Republican National Convention to be held this summer in Tampa.

“I think Florida did something very important, coming on top of South Carolina,” Gingrich said. “It is now clear that this will be a two-person race between the true conservative leader, Newt Gingrich, and the Massachusetts moderate.”

For his part, Romney seemed poised to retake the mantle of frontrunner from Gingrich – at least for now. Speaking to supporters in Florida Tuesday night, Romney leveled most of his criticisms at President Barack Obama. He also suggested that a prolonged primary fight would be healthy for the GOP.

“As this primary unfolds, our opponents in the other party have been watching and they like to comfort themselves with the thought that a competitive campaign will leave us divided and weak,” Romney said. “But I’ve got news for them. A competitive primary does not divide us, it prepares us and we will win.”

Florida’s primary was the first of this year’s GOP presidential contests to be open only to registered Republicans and its winner-take-all system awarded Romney with the state’s entire 50 delegates.

As Chris Chillizza noted in the Washington Post, Romney’s solid win in Florida could go far to dispel criticisms by his GOP rivals that he is insufficiently conservative to carry the party’s banner. Exit polling from Tuesday found the turnout to be more conservative than the primary electorate that handed Sen. John McCain a decisive victory there in 2008, with two-out-of-three voters at the polls this year expressing support for the tea party movement.

Former U.S. senator Rick Santorum finished a distant third in Florida, with 13 percent of the vote, followed by Congressman Ron Paul at 7 percent. Both Santorum and Paul were already in Nevada on the night of Florida’s results, trying to lay the groundwork for their campaigns ahead of that state’s Feb. 4 caucuses.

But victory in Nevada could prove an uphill climb for Romney’s rivals, given the fact that he won there in 2008 with 51 percent of the vote.

After Florida’s results, Romney may once again be viewed as the leader of a presidential pack that has dwindled to four Republican contenders. But as shown by a precipitous change of fortunes between South Carolina and Florida, the nomination fight seems far from settled.

Posted in Election 2012, Florida | Leave a comment

Poll: McCrory leads potential Democratic rivals

Posted on January 30, 2012 by BWarner

Survey results released today by Public Policy Polling (PPP) show Republican former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory leading a field of 13 potential Democratic rivals for the governor’s mansion.

The numbers come in the wake of Thursday’s surprise announcement by Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue that she will not seek re-election this fall. That news has shaken up the gubernatorial contest and left Democrats scrambling for a successor with 15 weeks to go before the May 8 primary.

According to the statewide poll of 554 voters, the closest competitors for McCrory would be former White House chief of staff Erskine Bowles, who trails McCrory 44-42 percent, and U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan, who lags seven points behind McCrory, 48-41 percent.  The other 11 possible Democratic candidates tested by PPP trail McCrory by double digits.

So far two Democrats have publicly announced their intention to seek the party’s nomination for governor: Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton and Rep. Bill Faison. According to the PPP survey, Dalton currently trails McCrory by 15 percent. Faison is 19 points behind McCrory.

While the poll shows McCrory with an advantage early on against possible Democratic foes, the survey also finds more voters leaning toward a generic Democrat over a generic Republican in the race, 46-45 percent.

Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling explains that apparent contradiction by pointing to McCrory’s high name recognition, with 76 percent of voters familiar with him. That contrasts sharply with most of the potential Democratic candidates, whose name recognition ranges from 31-52 percent. McCrory also enjoys fairly high approval ratings, with 45 percent of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 31 percent holding an unfavorable opinion.

“The reason most of the Democrats we tested are down by huge margins to Pat McCrory is because voters are less aware of them than they are of McCrory, who was mayor for 14 years of the largest city in the state and was the GOP nominee for governor just four years ago,” Jensen said.

Overall, the poll seems to show McCrory well positioned as Democrats try to recover from the shock waves felt by Perdue’s sudden departure. But the numbers also provide some hope for would-be challengers to the likely GOP nominee after a Jan. 17 poll had shown Perdue trailing McCrory by 11 points.

“Pat McCrory continues to be the favorite, especially if Erskine Bowles doesn’t end up running,” Jensen said. “But Democrats now have a fighting chance.”

Posted in Election 2012, governor, North Carolina | Leave a comment