Weekly ad roundup

Well the primary is over here in North Carolina, so now we get a chance to catch our breath before our swing state status overwhelms us with political ads as November draws closer.  Or not.  Both presidential campaigns are already on the air here in North Carolina and outside groups are up as well in both the presidential and gubernatorial races.

President Obama hits the airwaves in North Carolina (and eight other swing states) with a positive ad focusing on the economic crisis before he took office and his response.  It also manages to sneak in a reference to the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Of course, Mitt Romney countered and is now up with a spot of his own, his first of the general election.  Romney’s ad is positive as well and outlines his priorities from Day One in the Oval Office.

The Super PAC Crossroads GPS is also up with an ad here too, but this one goes on the attack against Obama, arguing that the President has not lived up to his promises.  The first Obama quote used in the ad is actually pulled from a speech he gave in Raleigh in 2008.

Finally, the Republican Governors Association is already up with an ad attacking Walter Dalton and calling him “Perdue’s right-hand man.”

And according to the News & Observer, we can expect a response very soon from the Democratic Governors Association.

All of this and it’s only May.  If you don’t like campaign advertising, you might not want to turn your TV on come October.

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Poll: McCrory leads Dalton by 6

Republican gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory leads his Democratic opponent Walter Dalton 46-40 percent as their general election campaigns get underway, according to a new post-primary survey from Public Policy Polling (PPP).

A former Charlotte mayor, McCrory enjoys the support of 84 percent of Republicans and leads Dalton among independent voters, 52-29 percent.

McCrory proves to be popular among North Carolina voters, with 41 percent of those surveyed holding a positive opinion of him and 28 percent having an unfavorable impression. The state’s current lieutenant governor, Dalton’s favorability rating has climbed 12 percent since his campaign for governor kicked off at the start of the year.

McCrory’s 6-point lead is down from the 15-percent advantage he had over Dalton in a January poll from PPP, pointing to the Democrat’s momentum as he emerges from a closely contested primary against former congressman Bob Etheridge.

“Dalton is underperforming right now with key Democratic constituencies like African Americans and young voters, but history suggests those people will end up breaking in his direction and if they do it will be a very close race,” Tom Jensen of PPP wrote in his analysis of the poll. “He has more room for growth than McCrory does.”

The PPP numbers come as the Dalton and McCrory camps spar over the planning of debates and the Republican Governors Association launches an attack ad attempting to tie Dalton to outgoing Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue.

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Some N.C. primary contests head to July runoff

Several statewide and congressional elections were left unsettled at the conclusion of last week’s primary voting, sending the contests to a runoff in the dead of summer.

With no candidate reaching the 40 percent threshold to win the party’s nomination outright, a second vote will be held on July 17 for the top two finishers in the Republican primaries for lieutenant governor, secretary of state and superintendent of public instruction, as well as in the Democratic primary for labor commissioner.

A runoff could also be on tap in the Republican primaries for state auditor and insurance commissioner if the second-place finishers in those contests submit a request to the State Board of Elections by May 17.

In addition to those statewide contests, runoffs have already been called for Republican primaries in the 8th, 9th and 11th congressional districts.

The July date of the runoff is almost a month later than what has been typical in the past due to a change last year to allow more time for military voters to return their absentee ballots.

Holding a second round of statewide voting will cost roughly $5 million, absorbed by North Carolina’s 100 counties.

Turnout for the May 8 primary was at 34 percent, a bit below the 37 percent seen in 2008 and higher than most other recent statewide primaries. However, runoff elections usually suffer from lower turnout, which could be exacerbated by the runoff being held in mid-summer and more than nine weeks after the initial primary vote.

As the Raleigh News & Observer notes, a 2010 U.S. Senate primary runoff saw just 4.5 percent of registered voters go to the polls and a 2008 runoff for a statewide Democratic contest resulted in less than 2 percent turnout.

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Latest NC ads

Election Day is only four days away and it seems most candidates are on the air making their final case to the voters of North Carolina.  Early voting has been brisk, but after tomorrow, when early voting ends, it will all come down to Tuesday.

Recent polls show Walter Dalton taking the lead in the Democratic primary for governor, and both he and his main opponent, Bob Etheridge, are up with new ads.

From Dalton’s campaign, continuing to stress his slogan “great jobs grow from great schools,” comes this ad:

And Etheridge is up with another ad too, again focusing on his experience as a former Superintendent of Public Instruction and also on his work with President Obama:

The Lt. Governor primaries are getting much less attention it seems, but candidates from both parties are up with ads.  On the Republican side we’ve already taken a look at ads from Dale Folwell and Tony Gurley, and this week we have an ad from Dan Forest:

Forest stresses his conservative and business credentials to appeal to Republican primary voters.

Finally, Eric Mansfield is up with an ad in the Democratic primary for Lt. Governor:

In the ad, Mansfield claims “our government in Raleigh is broken” and he is the best qualified to change things.

There are still a lot of undecided voters out there who might only start paying attention this weekend, so it will be interesting to see if any new ads pop up or if the current ads are effective in swaying voters.

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NC ad roundup

Last week we looked at ads from Walter Dalton and Tony Gurley, so this week we’re taking a look at ads from two of their challengers.

The first is from Bob Etheridge, candidate in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, and features Etheridge touting his record and experience.

The ad highlights Etheridge’s experience as a former Superintendent of Public Instruction, with no mention of his time in Congress or the NC General Assembly.  Like Dalton, Etheridge also stresses education and jobs in his ad, but also veers to attack the Republican legislature for slashing funding for schools.  In a Democratic primary, attacking Republicans in your ad could prove to be a sound strategy.

The next ad comes from Dale Folwell, Republican candidate for Lt. Governor.  Folwell is in a competitive primary and his ad focus on his achievements in the NC House of Representatives.

Folwell’s ad does a good job trumpeting his experience advocating for issues that could be important to Republican primary voters (“malpractice reform,” “family values legislation” and fighting “against taxation, regulation and illegal immigration”).

Also on the air in advance of the May 8 primary are ads from each side of the amendment question.

From supporters of the amendment:

And from opponents of the amendment:

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NC ad roundup

Early voting is underway across North Carolina and the primary is right around the corner, but the airwaves are still relatively quiet in some of the top tier races.  Pat McCrory doesn’t have much to worry about in his primary, so it’s no surprise that he’s not spending money on TV advertising right now.  That said, McCrory has put up a web video this week urging folks to vote early.

Interestingly, the video also encourages voters to show their ID at the polls, which of course they are not required to do.  McCrory is a strong supporter of photo ID legislation, and most polls show the general public supports it as well, so perhaps this is an indication he may try to make it a campaign issue this fall.

Running in the race to challenge McCrory, the presumptive GOP nominee, is Democrat Walter Dalton.  Lt. Governor Dalton is the first candidate up with a major ad buy with this spot:

The Dalton ad does a pretty clever job of getting his name out there to a largely undecided Democratic electorate.  It also hits on the two major campaign themes in the Democratic primary, jobs and education.  It will be interesting to see what, if any, advantage Dalton will have over his opponents as May 8 gets closer.

Finally, Tony Gurley, Republican candidate for Lt. Governor, put up this ad recently:

When you’re dealing with low name ID in a statewide election, using your name a lot in an ad is a pretty good tactic to increase that recognition with voters.  The ad says his name at least six times and it’s written on screen in some form in every shot.  It also hits on two major issues for the Republican party, photo ID and the same-sex marriage amendment.  For Republican voters who don’t know Tony Gurley, the ad probably serves as a pretty good introduction.

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Democratic race for governor finally heats up

When Governor Perdue announced in January that she would not seek reelection speculation immediately began as to who would seek her party’s nomination to succeed her.  Amidst all of that speculation, many political observers expected an exciting, crowded Democratic primary.  In reality, the primary has been extremely quiet up to this point.  However, that should all change this week.

The three main candidates for the nomination–Lt. Governor Walter Dalton, former congressman Bob Etheridge and N.C. Representative Bill Faison–will square off in three consecutive nights of debates beginning on Monday night.  In a race marked more by who didn’t run and a compressed time frame for campaigning, these debates could provide the first real spark in what has so far been a pretty sleepy campaign.

We have yet to see substantial TV advertising from any of the candidates, so these debates will be a real opportunity for them to introduce themselves to the voters.  A Public Policy Polling survey recently showed that 45% of voters are undecided in the race, which shows how important these debates can be.  Much like the debates helped frame the Republican presidential primary, we could see a similar effect from the three nights of debates in North Carolina.  Stumble in one or two of them and your stock could plummet, but perform brilliantly in all three and you could shoot to the top of polls and start claiming those undecided voters.  With early voting beginning this week and only three weeks left until the May 8 primary, there’s little time to waste for the candidates.

Elections and politics are all about seizing opportunities, and these three consecutive debates provide a perfect opportunity for a field of relatively unknown candidates  to speak to a largely undecided electorate.

Details of the debates, including air times, can be found here.

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Romney wins big in Illinois, but GOP race continues

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney garnered a decisive victory in the Illinois primary Tuesday night, beating his chief rival Rick Santorum by nearly 12 percentage points.

Yet even with Romney’s strong performance and his growing delegate-count advantage, the Republican nomination fight looks poised to continue well into spring as none of his competitors have indicated that they might drop out of the contest anytime soon.

Even while fading to second place after polls earlier this month showed a tight contest in Illinois, Santorum was far from sullen in the wake of Tuesday’s results as he highlighted his strength among conservative voters in that state.

“We’re going to win downstate, we’re going to win central Illinois, we’re going to win western Illinois. We won the areas that conservatives and Republicans populate,” Santorum told supporters in Pennsylvania Tuesday evening. “We’re very happy about that, we’re very happy about the delegates we’re going to get, too.”

According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Santorum is on track to win 12 delegates in Illinois, compared to the 42 delegates for Romney. That delegate disparity is key for all candidates as they strive for the 1,144 needed to secure the Republican presidential nomination.

With his win in Illinois following a commanding victory in Puerto Rico over the weekend, Romney’s delegate count stands at 563, according to the Associated Press, which is almost halfway to the total needed. Meanwhile, Santorum is second at 263, followed by Newt Gingrich 135 and Ron Paul at 50.

As Romney continues to build his delegate tally, the hopes of the other candidates to surpass him grow dimmer. But campaign finance reports released Wednesday show Santorum’s campaign holding strong on the fundraising front, pulling in $8.9 million for February, compared to the $11.5 million for Romney.

Next up for the Republican presidential field is the Louisiana primary on Saturday.

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Ad roundup from NC

With North Carolina’s primary less than 60 days away, candidates across the state are starting to take to the airwaves in contested primaries.  The Republican primaries in the 9th and 13th Congressional Districts are two of the more prominent races being fought on May 8.

The 9th district in the Charlotte area has more than 10 Republicans running for the nomination, and Robert Pittenger already has this ad up:

In the Raleigh area, the 13th district is seeing its fair share of fighting between Paul Coble and George Holding in the Republican primary.  Paul Coble’s first TV ad takes aim at the rising deficit and spending in Washington:

And proving that congressional primaries are not immune from Super PAC spending, American Foundations Committee, supporting George Holding, is up with this ad:

Holding is also airing a radio spot to counteract claims made by Coble against his candidacy.

The NC General Assembly races are starting to see some ads go up as well.  NC Rep. Jim Crawford (D), who was double-bunked with Rep. Winkie Wilkins (D) during redistricting, is up with an ad highlighting his willingness to “stand alone” on important issues.  Crawford was one of five Democrats who broke party ranks to help pass the Republican-crafted budget in 2011.  Here’s the ad:

As May 8 draws closer, expect to see a lot more ads in these contested primaries.  Of course, this will all just be a warmup to late October when most of North Carolina won’t be able to turn the TV on without seeing political ads.

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Will North Carolina’s presidential primary matter?

More and more it seems that, yes, North Carolina could be a factor in this year’s Republican presidential primary.  When the whole process started it appeared likely that our May 8 primary would be too late in the game and one of the candidates would have sewn up the race by the time North Carolina voters went to the polls.  But with Rick Santorum’s twin victories in Alabama and Mississippi earlier this week, and Romney’s inability to close the door on his opponents, it looks like the race might not be over by May 8 after all.

Also, today the News & Observer reports that Santorum is beginning to build a campaign apparatus here in North Carolina as well.  Santorum continues to solidify himself as the most legitimate threat to Mitt Romney, but, according to a new poll from Public Policy Polling, Romney has a slight edge in the state leading Santorum 31% to 27%.

While North Carolina probably won’t play a deciding role in the delegate count, it can play a defining role in Mitt Romney’s campaign narrative and help him shore up Republican support.  Louisiana is the next southern state to vote, on March 24, and it seems likely at this point that Santorum will carry the state.  Between March 24 and the NC primary on May 8 though, the terrain appears to favor Romney, aside from Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania, with several northeast states voting along with Wisconsin.

If Romney can pull off a string of victories in that time period between Louisiana and NC’s primary on May 8 he will begin to get momentum back on his side.  And if Romney can capitalize on that momentum and secure a decisive win in North Carolina, his first victory in a southern state, it could finally give him the argument he needs to convince Republican voters that he will be the party’s nominee.  He still likely wouldn’t have the delegates to outright clinch the nomination, but couple a strong April with a big win in North Carolina, a key battleground state in the South, and it very well could serve to finally to put to rest the questions about Romney’s campaign.

Of course, a lot can happen between now and May 8, but the way the field looks now and looking at the road ahead, it looks like North Carolina can expect to see visits from Romney, Santorum and Gingrich in the not-too-distant future.

Posted in Election 2012, North Carolina, primaries | 1 Comment