The Voter Update | On the Trail

Boehner re-elected speaker of U.S. House

Posted on January 3, 2013 by BWarner

The 113th U.S. Congress got underway Thursday with the re-election of Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) as House speaker, but not without some dissent from within his party’s caucus.

Boehner received 220 of the 426 votes cast by incoming members of the U.S. House of Representatives. Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who preceded Boehner as speaker, received 192 votes.

Not all House members were supportive of either Boehner or Pelosi, including two members of North Carolina’s congressional delegation. Republican Rep. Walter Jones (District 3), who is seen as something of a party maverick, cast his vote for former U.S. comptroller general David Walker. (House speakers are not required to be members of that body.)

Rep. Mike McIntyre of North Carolina’s 7th District bucked the majority of his party to vote for fellow Blue Dog Democrat Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee.

In all, 14 votes were cast for candidates other than Boehner or Pelosi, including three for Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.), two for former congressman Allen West (R-Fla.) and one for former secretary of state Colin Powell. One member voted present.

After the vote for House speaker, Cantor was named majority leader and Pelosi was named minority leader.

Boehner’s re-election as speaker comes in the wake of his failure to wrangle sufficient votes among the GOP caucus for his fiscal-cliff plan and withering criticisms from such Republicans as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie after the 112th Congress concluded earlier this week without taking up federal aid for Northeastern states hit by Hurricane Sandy.

Speaker Boehner could soon face another steep challenge to his leadership when the federal debt ceiling limit and automatic across-the-board spending cuts come due in February or March.

Posted in U.S. Congress | Leave a comment

Romney wins N.C. Electoral College votes

Posted on December 18, 2012 by BWarner

Over 4.5 million North Carolina voters cast a ballot in this year’s presidential contest, but it was the votes of 15 people at the State Capitol more than a month after Election Day that technically mattered most.

The 56th meeting of the N.C. Electoral College took place in Raleigh on Monday. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall oversaw the proceedings as a slate of Republican electors – one from each congressional district and two selected at-large – officially awarded North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes to Mitt Romney, who carried the state by 92,000 ballots in November.

The outcome of the electors’ vote was unsurprising, given that state law requires them to support the candidate who won the state’s popular vote. (That law came about after a “faithless elector” caused a stir in 1968 by voting for George Wallace instead of Richard Nixon.)

Romney fell short of his quest for 270 electoral votes nationwide and the White House, instead carrying 206 electoral votes to President Barack Obama’s 332. For North Carolina Republicans, Romney’s win in the Tar Heel State was a return to normalcy after Obama won the state in 2008 as the first Democrat to do so since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Full proceedings of the 2012 North Carolina Electoral College can be seen in the video below, provided by VoterRadio.com.

Posted in Electoral College, North Carolina | Leave a comment

Dems carry more votes in N.C. congressional races, but lose seats to GOP

Posted on November 29, 2012 by BWarner

A tally of ballots cast in congressional races across North Carolina in 2012 shows Democrats edging out Republicans overall, 51-49 percent. Yet the GOP picked up three congressional seats to go from a 7-6 deficit to a 9-4 advantage in the state’s U.S. House delegation, while Democrats failed to add a single seat to their total.

The favorable results for the GOP come under new congressional districts drawn by the Republican-controlled legislature in 2011.

This year, Republicans held on to each of their six seats, including that of retiring Rep. Sue Myrick in the 9th District, and defeated incumbent Democrat Larry Kissell in the 8th District. The GOP also picked up a seat in the 11th District, where Democrat Heath Shuler declined to seek re-election, and in the 13th District, where incumbent Democrat Brad Miller decided against another run for office in a district significantly different under the new Republican-crafted maps.

Indeed, the 13th District saw a net swing of 25 percentage points in the margin of victory between 2010 and 2012 in the GOP’s favor. This year, Republican George Holding won by 14 percent a seat that Miller had carried by 11 percent two years previous.

Republicans narrowly missed out on picking up a fourth seat in the 7th District when Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre defeated Republican David Rouzer by 654 votes, or 0.2 percent. McIntyre won re-election in 2010 by a more comfortable 8-point margin.

The gains for Republicans come after the 2010 election resulted in their party winning a majority in both chambers of the state legislature for the first time in more than a century, and just in time to control that body during the decennial redistricting process.

Also in 2010, Republicans led Democrats in congressional votes across the state, 54-46 percent, but picked up just one seat when challenger Renee Ellmers edged out Democratic incumbent Rep. Bob Etheridge by less than 1 percent in the 2nd District. Even in what was a strong Republican election year in 2010, Democrats maintained a 7-6 seat, or 54-46 percent, advantage in North Carolina’s congressional delegation.

The disparity between statewide congressional vote totals and the results in individual races may be due to several factors specific to those contests, including the caliber of campaigns, voter turnout efforts and regional partisan leanings. But the gap may also point to the effective use of redistricting by each party, when in control of the legislature, to draw congressional districts more favorable to their slate of candidates.

The following table shows the results of the 2012 congressional races, along with the net difference between the margin of victory this year as compared to 2010. For instance, Republican Rep. Walter Jones of the 3rd District won re-election in 2012 by 26 percent, down from his 46 percent margin of victory in 2010, resulting in a net gain of 20 percent for Democrats even though Jones held his seat.

District	2012 Winner	2012 Margin of Victory	Net Change from 2010
District 1	Democrat	52%	+34% Dem
District 2	Republican	15%	+14% Rep
District 3	Republican	26%	+20% Dem
District 4	Democrat	48%	+34% Dem
District 5	Republican	16%	+16% Dem
District 6	Republican	22%	+28% Dem
District 7	Democrat	0.2%	+8% Rep
District 8	Republican*	8%	+17% Rep
District 9	Republican	6%	+32% Dem
District 10	Republican	14%	+28% Dem
District 11	Republican*	14%	+22% Rep
District 12	Democrat	60%	+30% Dem
District 13	Republican*	14%	+25% Rep

*Change in party control from 2010

Posted in Election 2012, North Carolina, U.S. Congress | 1 Comment

Voter participation in N.C. judicial races up in 2012

Posted on November 20, 2012 by BWarner

North Carolina voters faced a long ballot this year, with a presidential race at the top, judicial elections at the bottom, and a slate of congressional, legislative and county-level contests in between.

Of the more than 4.5 million ballots cast across the state in the 2012 election, 99 percent included a vote for president and 98 percent had a vote for governor. Yet just 77 percent of voters who went to the polls made a choice in this year’s lone race for the N.C. Supreme Court.

Known as “drop-off,” the phenomenon of voters casting a vote in some races but declining to make a selection in others is frequently seen in down-ballot contests, including nonpartisan judicial elections.

While still significant, voter drop-off in this year’s statewide judicial contests declined slightly over the last two election cycles. In 2012, 77 percent of ballots cast included a vote for N.C. Supreme Court, up from 75 percent in a Supreme Court race two years ago, and an increase from 71 percent in a 2008 court contest.

Races for the N.C. Court of Appeals also saw an uptick in voter participation this year, hovering at about 75 percent. In 2010, the high mark for voter participation in races for the N.C. Court of Appeals was at 72 percent of ballots cast, itself an increase from the 68 percent seen in that court’s 2008 elections.

Here’s a look at the percent of ballots cast in 2012 that included votes for statewide races:

U.S. president: 99%

governor: 98%

lieutenant governor: 96%

attorney general: 62% (incumbent Roy Cooper ran unopposed)

auditor: 94%

agriculture commissioner: 95%

insurance commissioner: 95%

labor commissioner: 95%

secretary of state: 95%

superintendent of public instruction: 95%

treasurer: 95%

N.C. Supreme Court: 77%

N.C. Court of Appeals (McGee Seat): 75%

N.C. Court of Appeals (Bryant Seat): 75%

N.C. Court of Appeals (Thigpen Seat): 74%

Posted in Election 2012, North Carolina | Leave a comment

McCrory elected governor, GOP builds control in N.C. legislature

Posted on November 7, 2012 by BWarner

While disappointed in the outcome of the presidential contest, North Carolina Republicans had plenty to cheer about on election night 2012 as former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory easily won election as the state’s first GOP governor in 20 years.

Republicans also built upon their majorities in the N.C. House and N.C. Senate. The GOP took control of at least three North Carolina congressional seats previously held by Democrats. And in a nonpartisan N.C. Supreme Court race closely watched by both parties, the Republican-supported incumbent won re-election over his Democratic-backed challenger.

Democratic Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton entered the gubernatorial race in late January when incumbent Gov. Bev Perdue abruptly announced that she would not seek re-election. After winning his party’s primary, Dalton faced a polling and funding gap against McCrory — who had been gearing up for another gubernatorial run since his close loss to Perdue in 2008.

The gaps persisted into Election Day, with McCrory ultimately defeating Dalton 55-43 percent, according to results from the State Board of Elections. Libertarian candidate Barbara Howe garnered 2 percent of the vote — enough to maintain her party’s ballot status for the next four years.

While McCrory will be North Carolina’s first Republican governor since Jim Martin left office in 1993, he will also be the first Tar Heel Republican governor to serve with a GOP-controlled legislature in more than a century. Republicans appeared to pick up nine seats in the N.C. House, building a 77-43 majority, and added one seat in the N.C. Senate, where they will have a 32-18 edge over Democrats.

The legislative wins for Republicans come two years after they took control of both chambers of the N.C. legislature for the first time in over 100 years. In the wake of the 2010 election, the new GOP majority in the N.C. General Assembly controlled the decennial redistricting process, resulting in new congressional and legislative voting maps that were viewed as being more favorable to Republican candidates.

Tuesday’s results show Republicans picking up at least three congressional seats in North Carolina, with a fourth seat in District 7 likely headed for a recount as incumbent Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre leads challenger David Rouzer by just 507 votes. A win by Rouzer would give Republicans a 10-3 advantage in the North Carolina congressional delegation, which going into this year’s election leaned 7-6 Democratic.

Two Democratic incumbents — Brad Miller in the 13th District and Heath Shuler in the 11th District — declined to run for re-election. Republicans won those seats, along with defeating incumbent Democratic Rep. Larry Kissell in the 8th District.

Contests for the Council of State saw all incumbents win re-election. The race to succeed outgoing Lt. Gov. Dalton appears headed for a recount, with Republican Dan Forest leading Democrat Linda Coleman by just under 11,000 votes out of more than 4.3 million cast in that race.

Both parties had been active in a sole race for the N.C. Supreme Court that saw incumbent Justice Paul Newby challenged by N.C. Appeals Court Judge Sam Ervin. With several outside groups spending more than $2 million in the nonpartisan race, the Republican-backed Newby defeated Ervin, 52-48 percent. The judicial contest drew an unusual amount of attention due to the possibility of the court deciding such key cases as lawsuits over Republican-drawn voting maps.

Posted in Election 2012, governor, N.C. legislature, North Carolina | Tagged NC Supreme Court | Leave a comment

Obama wins re-election, faces divided Congress

Posted on November 7, 2012 by BWarner

President Barack Obama won a second term in office on Tuesday night, sweeping a series of battleground states for a clear victory in the Electoral College, while narrowly edging out Republican Mitt Romney in the popular vote.

Obama’s margin of victory was smaller than his win in 2008, but with 303 electoral votes secured and leading in the too-close-to-call state of Florida, Obama sealed his re-election before midnight on Election Day.

The president won the key states of Ohio, Colorado and Virginia — the first Democrat to carry that state consecutively since Franklin Roosevelt. He also thwarted Romney’s attempt to put into play the Democratic-leaning states of Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin — the home state of GOP vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan.

However, Obama was not able to repeat his success in Indiana and North Carolina, site of the 2012 Democratic National Convention. Instead, Romney carried the Tar Heel State by 97,000 votes after Obama’s 14,000-vote win in 2008. Nationally, Obama won 50 percent of the popular vote, down from the 53 percent he garnered in his first run for the White House.

At the end of a bruising and divisive campaign that saw record spending by the campaigns and outside groups, both candidates struck a conciliatory note after the votes were counted.

“We can seize this future together, because we are not as divided as our politics suggest,” Obama told supporters in Chicago Tuesday night. “We remain more than a collection of red states and blue states, we are and forever will be the United States of America.”

In his concession speech in Boston, Romney said he prayed “that the president will be successful in guiding our nation.”

Meanwhile, Democrats retained control of the U.S. Senate with key wins in Missouri, Indiana and a high-profile race in Massachusetts, where Elizabeth Warren defeated incumbent Republican Scott Brown to reclaim a seat held by the late Ted Kennedy for nearly 47 years.

Republicans held their majority in the U.S. House, ensuring a divided federal government for the next two years and positioning that chamber as a potential obstacle to Obama’s second-term agenda. The first test of the ability of the president to work with congressional Republicans post-election will come with debates over extension of the Bush-era tax cuts set to expire at the end of the year and automatic across-the-board spending cuts that could be triggered at the start of 2013.

An attempt to reengage the uneasy relationship between Obama and the GOP-led Congress got off to a poor start on election night when, according to the New York Times, the president called several House leaders but found that they had already gone to bed.

Posted in Election 2012, presidential race | Leave a comment

More ballots cast, but voter turnout dips slightly in N.C.

Posted on November 7, 2012 by BWarner

According to the State Board of Elections, some 4.5 million ballots were cast in North Carolina’s 2012 general election, an increase from the 4.3 million cast in 2008.

However, the percent of voter turnout dipped slightly from the 70 percent seen four years ago, with 68 percent of registered voters casting a ballot this year. The discrepancy between ballots cast and turnout percentage comes from an increase of some 400,000 registered voters over the past four years.

While the 2012 turnout declined modestly from 2008, it was a sharp increase from the 44 percent turnout in the 2010 mid-term elections and was strong compared to past presidential election years:

2012 – 68%
2008 – 70%
2004 – 64%
2000 – 59%
1996 – 59%
1992 – 68%
1988 – 62%
1984 – 69%
1980 – 67%
1976 – 66%
1972 – 64%

Posted in Election 2012, North Carolina | Tagged voter turnout in NC | Leave a comment

Welcome to Election Day 2012

Posted on November 6, 2012 by BWarner

After what has at times seemed an interminable campaign season, Election 2012 now rests in the hands of voters.

While the presidential race has dominated the airwaves and captivated the public’s attention, North Carolina voters will cast a ballot that extends far beyond the contest for the White House. Voters can prepare for the slew of non-presidential races by visiting NCVoterGuide.org, produced by the nonpartisan N.C. Center for Voter Education and UNC-TV.

VoterRadio.com also provides in-depth interviews and forums for many statewide candidates, including a heated race for the N.C. Supreme Court.

Polls are open across North Carolina from 6:30 a.m. until 7:30 p.m.

Study up on the candidates and go vote!

Posted in Election 2012, North Carolina | Leave a comment

Selling the President

Posted on November 5, 2012 by BWarner

Five months ago and in the dog days of summer, spending on the 2012 presidential campaign had already surpassed the $100 million mark, with ads chiefly aimed at a handful of swing states — including North Carolina — in what the New York Times called “the earliest concentration of advertising in modern politics.”

As Election Day arrives, the Associated Press reports that the total spent on TV ads in this year’s race for the White House has ballooned to a record $1 billion, mainly targeted at 10 key states. “Never before has so much money been spent on so many commercials aimed at so few voters,” the AP writes.

As voters in battleground states contend with an unprecedented deluge of presidential ads, it is fitting to look back 60 years to their origin in the election of 1952 and the beginning of this peculiar intersection of Madison and Pennsylvania avenues. That year the campaign of former five-star general and Republican nominee Dwight D. Eisenhower recruited adman Rosser Reeves to craft a novel television commercial blitz.

Reeves, who helped coin the slogan “melt in your mouth, not in your hands” for M&M’s chocolate candy, produced a series of 40 spots entitled “Eisenhower Answers America.” While the ads were made to look like spontaneous questions from “real Americans,” in reality the answers – scripted on cue cards for Eisenhower to read – were filmed first. Rosser’s team then wrangled New York City tourists to film the equally scripted questions.

In a subtle stroke of effective imagery, the inquiring citizens were told to look upward, while Eisenhower was filmed separately, looking slightly downward, creating a sense of paternal reverence for the candidate, reciprocated by his fatherly gaze and sage advice.

Added to the mix of ads was the memorable “I Like Ike” spot, featuring a catchy jingle created by Irving Berlin and animated by Roy Disney, the brother of none other than Walt.

Eisenhower’s Democratic rival, Adlai Stevenson, was slow to the TV airwaves. His campaign manager denigrated the television tactic as selling the presidency in the same manner as “soap, ammoniated toothpaste, hair tonic or bubble gum.” While the Stevenson camp eventually employed TV advertising, the candidate refused to appear in the ads himself (a precursor to the obstinate refusal by a pallid Richard Nixon to wear makeup in the first-ever televised debate in 1960).

Stevenson was severely outspent by Eisenhower’s campaign, which paid a shocking $2 million (about $17 million in today’s dollars) to flood the airwaves with ads in the final weeks of the election. Unable to swiftly respond to the marketing monsoon, Stevenson was effectively painted as an effete egghead, compared to Eisenhower’s image as a confident leader.

The World War II hero swept to victory, taking 55 percent of the popular vote, 39 states and 442 electoral votes to Stevenson’s 89. The win ended 20 years of Democratic control of the White House and the age of made-for-TV presidential campaigns, for better or worse, was born.

Poor Ohio.

Posted in Campaign ads, Election 2012 | Leave a comment

2012 candidate forums

Posted on September 18, 2012 by Brent Laurenz

Below is a list of candidate forums scheduled between now and Election Day across North Carolina that the public is welcome to attend. Candidate forums are a great way to hear directly from candidates where they stand on important issues, and most offer an opportunity for audience members to ask questions as well.

If we missed any forums, please let us know and we will add them to the list.

2012 Candidate Forums

September 20: Wake County Commissioners Districts 4, 5 and 6

Hosted by: WakeUP Wake County and League of Women Voters of Wake County

Where: Garner Performing Arts Center, 742 Garner Road, Garner

When: 7:00pm

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